Incumbent United States Senator Rick Scott is polling ahead of his challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, on a consistent basis ahead of his first Senate re-election attempt. Scott, a Republican, unseated three-term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in 2018 following Scott's two terms as Florida Governor.
Mucarsel-Powell's deficit in major polls is in line with Democrats' increasingly loose grasp over what was once one of the key swing states in the United States. As recently as 2018 statewide elections were razor-thin, with Scott besting Nelson by 0.2% and Ron DeSantis beating gubernatorial opponent Andrew Gillum 0.4%.
Still, despite a strong push to the right in the Sunshine State, the race may not be unwinnable for Mucarsel-Powell. Two polls last month from Florida Atlantic University among registered voters and likely voters respectively placed her within 4% and 2% of Scott. Further bolstering Mucarsel-Powell's hopes are the inevitable pushes in favor of ballot amendments to guarantee abortion and recreational marijuana rights, issues among the most effective in Democratic policy according to many leading political commentators.
On the other hand, Scott has a way of never losing statewide elections in Florida, whether he's projected to surge or to struggle on Election Day. He won his gubernatorial elections in 2010 and 2014, each by less than two percentage points. His 2018 Senate victory was his closest yet, and against perhaps his politically strongest opponent in Nelson. But Scott pulled through for the third time a row. Furthermore in Scott's favor is that he'll be running in a presidential year for the first time, and Florida is projected to sway reliably for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.
Though Mucarsel-Powell is being treated as Scott's presumptive opponent, she'll have to win the August Democratic primary before officially becoming the nominee. A former congresswoman from Florida's 26th district, she's facing tech CEO Stanley Campbell, Army veteran Rod Joseph, and ex-state legislator Brian Rush.
